MD 1922 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 560…561… FOR ARKLATEX AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1922
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022
Areas affected...ArkLaTex and southeastern Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 560...561...
Valid 050017Z - 050145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 560, 561 continues.
SUMMARY...Confirmed dangerous tornadoes are ongoing across portions
of the ArkLaTex region. Threat will continue over the next couple of
hours.
DISCUSSION...Radar trends continue to show an uptick in intensity of
supercells across portions of the ArkLaTex region near the Red River
in the last couple of hours. Several confirmed tornadoes have been
reported within this region and are continuing. Near this region
lies the most favorable overlap of deep layer shear around 40-50+
kts (as observed by VAD profiles at Shreveport and Ft. Smith) along
with storm relative helicity 0-1 km around 300 m2/s2 and MLCAPE
around 1000-1500 J/kg slowly nudging north and eastward with time.
Objective surface analysis shows a sharp theta-e axis extending into
portions of western Louisiana into western Arkansas and eastern
Oklahoma. This will continue to be a favored region for more
discrete organized supercells and strong tornadoes in the next
couple of hours ahead of the cold front.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 11/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 34559461 34439410 34139384 33629384 32829398 32529457
32519516 32649537 33049560 33459554 34039521 34539490
34559461
