MD 1928 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1928
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022
Areas affected...portions of coastal Southern California.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 081736Z - 082000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Shoreward moving bands of low-topped convection may pose
an isolated risk for strong/damaging wind gusts and or a brief
tornado through the early afternoon. A weather watch is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...Morning water-vapor imagery showed a well-developed
upper trough and strong cyclonically curved jet streak moving
onshore across portions of the West Coast. A cold front and
convergence band associated with the main upper wave are forecast to
move toward the near coast supporting a couple of bands of
low-topped convection through the morning and early afternoon. Moist
onshore flow will allow for weak destabilization in the lowest few
kilometers with forecast soundings showing 300-500 J/kg of MUCAPE
ahead of the front. Very strong low/mid level wind fields will also
be present with 0-6 km bulk shear of 60-70 kt favorable for storm
organization into a QLCS. Orographic convergence may result in
backing of the near-surface winds over the LA Basin and near shore
aiding in a localized risk of a few strong/damaging wind gusts or
perhaps a brief tornado over the next few hours. Given very limited
buoyancy and uncertainty with storm coverage, a weather watch is not
expected.
..Lyons/Hart.. 11/08/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGX...HNX...LOX...
LAT...LON 34922068 34891904 34621766 34001718 33591722 33321744
33561804 33831888 33941939 33911981 33922022 33992062
34272084 34712093 34922068
