MD 1929 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 PM CST Wed Nov 09 2022
Areas affected...east coast of Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 100430Z - 100530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some tornado threat will increase along the Florida coast
after midnight. Spatial extent of the tornado threat should be
limited, which may mitigate near term watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...An area of convection has been ongoing within the outer
bands on the northwest side of Hurricane Nicole this evening. This
band will gradually shift inland just north of the Space Coast as
Nicole makes landfall in the early hours of Thursday morning. As
stronger easterly flow moves inland after midnight, hodographs will
become more elongated with clockwise curvature and 0-1 km storm
relative helicity forecast around 300 m2/s2. Increasing easterly
flow will also help usher in higher CAPE values that are currently
located offshore. This environment will favor development of a few
transient supercells across the coastal zones. The most favorable
corridor for increasing tornado threat will be largely tied to areas
along the Florida coast where the best overlap of shear and
instability is expected.
..Thornton/Grams.. 11/10/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...
LAT...LON 27507962 28337961 28917958 29417980 29908008 30258033
30588087 30528115 30448134 30348156 30058175 29618174
28618146 28218127 27688110 27228072 27138050 27068004
27107991 27227981 27407964 27507962
