MD 1933 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1933
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
Areas affected...southwest and central ND
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 101111Z - 101715Z
SUMMARY...The corridor for the longest duration of heavy snowfall
rates (1 to 1.5 inches per hour) will extend from parts of southwest
ND east-northeastward through central ND this morning. The heaviest
snowfall rates are expected from 8am to 12pm CST and they will
gradually shift eastward across the discussion area.
DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery implies the leading edge of
stronger mid-level ascent is moving through western SD and into
southwest ND, ahead of a mid-level low centered over southern MT
near the WY border. Radar mosaic early this morning shows a
precipitation shield extending from southwest ND east-northeast
across central ND. The atmospheric column is beginning to saturate
over central ND to the north-northeast of Bismarck, whereas light to
moderate snow has been occurring farther south and southwest.
Short-term model guidance indicates the maximum upward vertical
motion will initially focus over southwest ND and areas west of the
MO River early this morning. As the large-scale ascent shifts
eastward by mid morning, the heaviest snowfall rates will begin to
focus near the MO River and later and farther east near the US 281
corridor towards midday. Peak snowfall rates are expected to range
from 1 to 1.5 inches per hour.
..Smith.. 11/10/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 46790259 47270248 47809962 47689902 47399867 46949887
46250137 46370226 46790259
