MD 1934 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 565… FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1934
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast Florida into extreme
southeast Georgia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 565...
Valid 101501Z - 101630Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 565 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 565. The
best chance for tornadoes will be across Duval, Nassau Counties in
Florida and Camden County Georgia over the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Tropical storm Nicole continues to drift west-northwest
across the FL Peninsula this morning, with a warm, moist, and
marginally unstable airmass slowly advecting westward unto the
northeast FL coastline. Current observations show lower 70s surface
temperatures/dewpoints in the Nassau/Duval County FL vicinity, where
a band of low-topped supercells is moving ashore. Point forecast
soundings suggest that surface temperatures need to rise into the
74-76F range for surface-based parcels to fully ingest the abundant
(i.e. 400+ m2/s2) effective SRH available. As diurnal heating
continues, the primary tornado threat will be associated with
onshore moving storms approaching the Jacksonville area. The tornado
threat is expected to continue drifting northward toward Camden
County, GA over the next few hours as low-level flow continues to
slowly veer more southeasterly, advecting a more buoyant airmass
inland.
..Squitieri.. 11/10/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...
LAT...LON 30778124 30438118 30258126 30188160 30268193 30388200
31208194 31488176 31498157 31288131 30778124
