MD 1936 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL GEORGIA TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
Mesoscale Discussion 1936
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
Areas affected...portions of Coastal Georgia to the South Carolina
Border
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 101731Z - 101900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat may develop along the GA
coastal area, up to the SC border this afternoon as a band of
low-topped, transient supercells continues to shift northward. A WW
issuance is being considered.
DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Nicole continues to drift northwestward,
with a band of low-topped transient supercells persisting along the
GA/FL border. So far, these storms have produced mainly brief,
transient low-level rotation, with no tornadoes reported or TDSs
detecting on regional radars so far. Relatively more favorable,
buoyant air has struggled to advect appreciably far inland, with
northeasterly surface winds and cloud cover keeping
temperatures/dewpoints down to around 68-70 F just north of the
ongoing convective band. Visible satellite does show some clearing
around the primary northward-moving band of transient supercells,
suggesting that slightly more buoyant air may advect inland later
this afternoon. Some guidance hints at MLCAPE approaching the
500-1000 J/kg range immediately onshore in the next few hours. Given
favorably curved, elongated hodographs recently shown by regional
VADs, this buoyancy could support an isolated tornado threat along
the shoreline.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 11/10/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...
LAT...LON 31298187 31988154 32288129 32518089 32588055 32498037
32188052 31728090 31528104 31318124 31298187
