MD 1938 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022
Areas affected...northern north Dakota into far northwestern
Minnesota
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 101901Z - 110000Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow should continue through the afternoon and
evening with rates of 1-2 inches per hour possible in the heaviest
bands.
DISCUSSION...Afternoon radar imagery showed a well-developed comma
head precipitation shield across much of ND. Associated with a
deepening surface low centered over southern MN, precipitation
coverage and intensity has increased over the last couple of hours.
Numerous automated and local storm reports show heavy snow is
occurring within the precip shield. Driven primarily by mid-level
warm advection and dynamic lift from an approaching upper trough,
forcing for ascent should continue to support widespread moderate to
heavy snow with rates near 1 inch per hour through the next 6 hours.
Several stronger bands with rates estimated near 1.5 inches per hour
have also developed lending high confidence to continued heavy
snowfall over portions of northern ND and far northwestern MN
through this evening. With continued advection of weak upright and
symmetric instability, convective elements within some of these
bands may be capable of localized rates near 2 inches per hour.
Located principally beneath the mid-level warm conveyor, this zone
of heaviest snow should gradually shift northeastward from near BIS
to near FGF later this evening. Snow should gradually end from
southwest to northeast as the surface low and upper trough move into
southern Canada tonight.
..Lyons.. 11/10/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 49010016 49079874 49039573 48109664 47219806 46829921
46630006 46600087 47300172 47550177 47910168 48350141
48710098 49010016
