MD 1941 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 568… FOR I-26 CORRIDOR FROM COASTAL SC NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL SC
Mesoscale Discussion 1941
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022
Areas affected...I-26 corridor from coastal SC northwestward into
central SC
Concerning...Tornado Watch 568...
Valid 110740Z - 110945Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 568 continues.
SUMMARY...A conditional threat for a brief/weak tornado continues
due to the background mesoscale environment being favorable for
isolated weak supercells.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic tonight shows the center of Tropical
Depression Nicole over southwest GA and the main convective band
located from near Charleston northwestward through the Columbia
vicinity. Surface analysis places a maritime warm front from near
Augusta, GA northeastward across central SC to near Fayetteville,
NC. A maritime tropical airmass is located over the Carolina
coastal plain where low 70s deg F dewpoints are in wake of the
slowly advancing front. KCAE VAD shows strong speed shear and an
enlarged low-level hodograph in the lowest 2 km AGL. Inputting
observed supercell motion near Sumter, SC during the past hour
yielded around 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. The calculation of SRH based on
the observed storm motion versus the Internal Dynamics method (i.e.,
Bunker's) was notably less (200 m2/s2 vs. 300 m2/s2 per RAP model
based SPC Mesoanalysis data). Regardless, adequate low-level
shear/SRH and a moist/sufficiently buoyant airmass will continue to
support the risk for a supercell or two through the remainder of the
night and an associated weak/brief tornado.
..Smith.. 11/11/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...
LAT...LON 34388031 33087916 32497891 32377950 32508023 33098080
33788161 34128158 34458087 34388031
