MD 1942 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT…SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1942
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0436 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022
Areas affected...Carolina coastal plain and piedmont...south-central
and southeast VA
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 111036Z - 111130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will likely be needed for the Carolina
coastal plain and piedmont. The risk for a tornado may extend as
far north as south-central and southeast VA through midday.
DISCUSSION...Model guidance indicates the continued influx of a
moist, maritime tropical airmass into the Carolina Piedmont and
southeastern/eastern VA as a maritime cold front advances
north-northwest over southern and eastern VA this morning. Forecast
soundings show a relatively long period of favorable buoyancy and
shear over central and eastern NC today, but this favorable zone
will extend from northeast SC and eventually into southern/eastern
VA. Modest diurnal heating amidst thinning clouds/cloud breaks will
boost MLCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range (locally higher).
Enlarged hodographs juxtaposed with pockets of heating and rich
low-level moisture will yield a large area favorable for potential
supercells. A tornado risk will likely accompany any supercell
within the warm sector. If a linear cluster of quasi-discrete
supercells develops in a band later today, a mesoscale area of
locally higher tornado threat could materialize.
..Smith/Edwards.. 11/11/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34058086 34858082 36667932 37727767 37517558 35117517
32627949 34058086
