MD 1943 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX HILL COUNTRY
Mesoscale Discussion 1943
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022
Areas affected...TX Hill Country
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 111529Z - 111730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for possible thunderstorm
development ahead of the front moving through the region. The
environment ahead of the front supports the potential for large to
very large hail within any mature thunderstorms. Trends are being
monitored for possible watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from south
of TYR in East Texas southwestward through central TX to about 50
miles north of DRT. Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing north of this
front, with a strong to severe thunderstorm near the front in the
Lampasas/Burnet county vicinity. Expectation is for the cold front
to continue surging southward, with a occasionally strong to severe
storms possible in its wake. The overall duration and coverage of
any severe thunderstorms north of the front should be mitigated by
decreasing buoyancy, limiting the overall severe potential.
Recent visible satellite imagery has shown more agitated/vertically
developed cumulus ahead of the front in the Real County vicinity.
This development suggests that the broad large-scale ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave may be able to overcome the
warm low to mid-level temperatures ahead of the front (sampled well
by the 12Z DRT/CRP soundings). Given the strong deep-layer vertical
shear, any updrafts that mature ahead of the front would likely be
able to produce large hail. Some instances of very large hail
greater than 2" in diameter are possible. Convective trends will be
monitored closely over the next few hours for possible watch
issuance.
..Mosier/Thompson.. 11/11/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29060035 30080018 30989804 30659717 28969696 28369812
28419980 29060035
