MD 1944 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 569… FOR NORTHEAST NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1944
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022
Areas affected...Northeast NC into southeast VA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 569...
Valid 111706Z - 111900Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 569 continues.
SUMMARY...The supercell tornado threat continues across Tornado
Watch 569, with a locally higher risk across parts of northeast NC
into southeast VA during the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows pockets of cloud
clearing/thinning amid rich boundary layer moisture (lower/middle
70s dewpoints) across parts of northeast NC into southeast VA. Here,
surface winds are favorably backed beneath deep/strong southerly
winds per RAX/AKQ VWPs. This wind profile is supporting modest
low-level hodograph curvature/streamwise vorticity, characterized by
150-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per aforementioned VWPs.
RAX radar data depicts a broken band of organizing supercell
structures spreading northward into this increasingly favorable
environment, and some modest intensification of this activity will
be possible through the afternoon given increasing boundary-layer
theta-e and strengthening low-level shear. Convection has generally
been tracking northward at around 30 mph, though any
discrete/semi-discrete cells that track more north-northeastward
should pose the greatest tornado threat.
..Weinman.. 11/11/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
LAT...LON 36807824 37037817 37277800 37527770 37667744 37707702
37527655 37287619 36967596 36427576 36117576 35827625
35767675 35887733 36037775 36207804 36527823 36807824
