MD 1949 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1949
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022
Areas affected...Southeastern Virginia and parts of northeastern
North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 112305Z - 120030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A conditional threat for a brief tornado or two will exist
with a line of forced convection moving into southeast Virginia.
DISCUSSION...A shallow line of forced convection continues slowly
eastward from western parts of Virginia into central North Carolina.
This line has not produced any lightning thus far. Dewpoints ahead
of this line in southeastern Virginia into adjacent parts of
northeast North Carolina remain in the low 70s F. Though diurnal
cooling will increase with time, the process should be slow given
the moist airmass. With some lingering buoyancy and modest
strengthening of 850 mb wind expected, there is a conditional,
low-end threat for a brief tornado or two along the line this
evening. The threat will hinge on whether dewpoints and temperatures
will remain in the low 70s this evening. Uncertainty exists in this
scenario as some observing sites dewpoints have fallen a degree or
two over the last hour as drier mid-level air has worked its way in.
..Wendt/Grams.. 11/11/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 36537888 37647876 38287829 38347799 38317731 37957671
37277653 36727664 36327680 35957751 36137824 36537888
