MD 1953 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COASTAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1953
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022
Areas affected...coastal Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 150210Z - 150415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Severe risk -- though mainly confined to the northwestern
Gulf -- may briefly approach the coast as storms shift repeatedly
inland, atop a stable surface layer. A brief tornado or strong wind
gust can't be ruled out over coastal Parishes.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a west-to-east
warm/stationary front, residing off the Louisiana coast, extending
east from a low over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile,
vigorous/rotating storms are ongoing within a broken band along a
cold front advancing across the western Gulf.
RAP point-forecast soundings near the coast depict a fairly deep
surface-based stable layer, and evening LCH and LIX RAOBS confirm
this, while a layer of weak CAPE resides above the inversion. As
such, severe-weather risk is expected to largely remain offshore
over the northern Gulf, where ample warm-sector surface-based CAPE
resides.
With that said, storms will remain slightly less elevated near the
immediate coast, given a progressively more shallow stable layer
with southward extent. Given very favorable shear across the area,
owing to strongly veering/increasingly winds with height, risk for a
brief tornado or strong wind gust remains non-zero. Still, we
remain confident that any inland risk should remain quite limited,
precluding the need for WW issuance.
..Goss/Guyer.. 11/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 28879388 29549314 29759258 29959182 29439058 28879093
28519328 28879388
