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SPC MD 1955


MD 1955 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1955
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CST Thu Nov 17 2022

Areas affected...Lee of Lake Erie

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 170709Z - 171215Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow within a lake effect band in the lee of Lake
Erie should evolve into multiple bands with more moderating snowfall
intensity towards 12Z.

DISCUSSION...A pronounced lake effect snow band has produced reports
of up to 10 inches of accumulation on Wednesday evening in Erie
County, NY with rates potentially near 2 in/hr. A minor shortwave
impulse crossing southwest ON at this time is aiding in a gradual
southward movement of the band into extreme northwest OH through far
southwest NY. VWP data from Cleveland and Buffalo have sampled the
predominant westerly 0-2 km flow ahead of this impulse, while
northwesterly winds dominate upstream at Detroit and North Webster,
IN. This change in wind direction should eventually yield a more
multi-banded structure with moderating intensities as wind
orientation becomes increasingly perpendicular across the long axis
of the lake. 00Z HREF members, as well as the 06Z HRRR all support
this scenario occurring towards daybreak.

..Grams.. 11/17/2022

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   42237971 42437893 42277865 41937907 41727986 41598049
            41628084 41628132 41898176 41958135 42237971 

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