MD 0196 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CST Sat Mar 05 2022
Areas affected...northwestern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 052242Z - 052345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorms expected over the next 1 to 2
hours will likely require tornado watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection slowly developing
across northwestern Missouri and adjacent northeastern Kansas -- as
far south as the Kansas City metro area. The convection is evolving
ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, within a thermodynamic
environment comprised of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE, and weak
capping.
As the front advances, ascent -- aided by the mid-level short-wave
trough crossing Nebraska/Kansas -- will support development of
additional/more widespread storms over the next couple of hours.
With weak low-level veering and a substantial increase in wind speed
with height, shear favoring supercells will support severe potential
with stronger storms, including risk for a couple of tornadoes. As
such, a new tornado watch will likely be required for portions of
northwestern Missouri.
..Goss/Thompson.. 03/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...
LAT...LON 38849416 39419402 40139398 40329272 39979206 39139222
38379383 38539400 38849416
