MD 1979 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1979
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022
Areas affected...southeast TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291939Z - 292145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated thunderstorm or two may produce hail and gusty
winds across southeast TX this afternoon. A watch is not expected at
this time.
DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms across southeast TX continue
to slowly intensify early this afternoon. The airmass across this
region is unseasonably moist with dewpoints in the 70s F. Steep
midlevel lapse rates and surface temperatures in the upper 70s F to
near 80 F are contributing to MLCAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg.
Strong vertical shear is present, with effective shear magnitudes
greater than 45 kt evident in region VWP data and 19z mesoanalysis
data. Overall this would support organized updrafts capable of large
hail. However, both large-scale and mesoscale ascent will remain
weak across the region the next several hours, with little focus for
supercell development until later tonight when a cold front shifts
southeast. Nevertheless, a storm or two may develop within a strong
warm advection regime. Any storm that does develop is expected to
quickly shift east/northeast toward Tornado Watch 572. Given the
conditional and isolated threat, a watch is not expected at this
time.
..Leitman/Hart.. 11/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 30259371 29749423 29589473 29629513 29759530 29949537
30139534 30239532 31119500 31799473 32129447 32179421
32179408 31719380 31089364 30259371
