MD 0199 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN TO EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CST Sat Mar 05 2022
Areas affected...southwestern to east-central Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 060125Z - 060300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging wind gusts may increase over the
next couple of hours, which could warrant WW issuance.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a narrow, frontal band of
convection moving across western Missouri at this time, with a
portion of this band extending south of Tornado Watch 28. While an
increasingly anafrontal character is expected to evolve with
southward extent into the Ozark Plateau later this
evening/overnight, some potential for damaging winds is apparent
just south of WW 28/29, given ample instability in tandem with very
strong lower and mid-level winds across the area. This potential is
hinted at by RUC-based guidance valid over the next few hours. With
the degree and coverage of wind potential a concern, the need for WW
issuance likely remains a bit uncertain. We will continue to
monitor convective evolution, with respect to potential need for a
severe thunderstorm watch.
..Goss/Thompson.. 03/06/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37609455 38399347 39379154 39379086 38659040 37789155
37199369 37119460 37609455
