MD 2003 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES…WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2003
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022
Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...Western Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 130112Z - 130345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely develop this evening across
parts of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles northward into western
Kansas. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. An
isolated tornado threat is also expected to develop later this
evening. Weather watch issuance may be needed once cells begin to
increase in coverage, especially after 03Z.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 995 mb low in
central Colorado with a surface trough extending southward across
southeastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. A moist airmass is
located from northwest Texas into the eastern Texas Panhandle, where
surface dewpoints are generally in the 50s F. A dryline is located
across the central Texas Panhandle. To the east of the dryline, a
narrow corridor of MLCAPE in the 250 to 750 J/kg range is analyzed
by the RAP.
Cells are ongoing near the instability axis and have shown a gradual
intensification trend over the last hour. This will likely continue
as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the southern High
Plains over the next few hours. Increasing large-scale ascent and
cooling temperatures aloft, will make conditions more favorable for
convective development with time. This instability combined with 0-6
km shear near 60 knots, evident on the Dodge City WSR-88D VWP, will
be sufficient for a severe threat as instability increases.
Initially, supercells with isolated large hail and wind damage are
expected to develop. But as cells increase in coverage and the
low-level jet strengthens, an isolated tornado threat is also
expected.
..Broyles/Grams.. 12/13/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...
LAT...LON 37810021 38320029 38560067 38470119 38180142 37700156
37060166 36510167 35920163 35610142 35520117 35850068
37810021
