MD 2005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS…WESTERN OKLAHOMA…NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022
Areas affected...Southern Kansas...Western Oklahoma...Northwest
Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 130310Z - 130545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop over the next few
hours from southern Kansas southward across western Oklahoma into
northwest Texas. Large hail, wind damage and an isolated tornado
threat will become possible with the more intense cells. Weather
watch issuance will likely be needed shortly.
DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has started to steadily increase
across the southern Plains as large-scale ascent has increased due
to the exit region of the mid-level jet. In addition, instability
has increased, partly due to moisture advection and partly due to
cooling aloft. MLCAPE is now between 500 and 1000 J/kg according to
the RAP. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP from Dodge City has 0-6
km near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm relative helicity near 400
m2/s2. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail, and
also potential for for wind damage and a few tornadoes. Weather
watch issuance will likely be needed shortly as a squall-line
gradually organizes and moves eastward across western Oklahoma,
northwest Texas and southern Kansas.
..Broyles.. 12/13/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 37289870 37759902 37889953 37750005 37340023 36610016
35420026 34720074 34600142 34500169 34130202 33780212
33520205 33400181 33400114 33450094 33660014 34189935
34819898 35539877 37289870
