MD 2022 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 583… FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 2022
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022
Areas affected...Central Louisiana and far southwest Mississippi
Concerning...Tornado Watch 583...
Valid 140106Z - 140300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 583 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for supercells and a few tornadoes is expected to
continue across WW583 through the next couple of hours. Additional
development/intensification across central and southern LA is
expected later this evening.
DISCUSSION...Across WW583, persistent showers and thunderstorms have
displayed intermittent rotation and brief organization over the last
several hours. The environment remains favorable for supercells with
upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints supporting 1000-2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE. In addition, strong 0-1 km bulk shear in excess of 30 kt
evident on SPC mesoanalysis is supportive of low-level mesocyclones
with a risk for tornadoes with the more established storms.
While so far organization within the warm advection confluence bands
farther east has been limited, stronger forcing for ascent is
expected to arrive from the west in the next couple of hours beneath
a 40-50 kt low-level jet. Recent HRRR runs suggest additional warm
sector development/intensification is possible across mainly the
eastern half of WW583 this evening. With strong shear and sufficient
buoyancy forecast to persist after dark, the risk for supercells and
a few tornadoes is expected to continue.
..Lyons.. 12/14/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 30629264 30549342 30769351 31159355 31449354 31849349
32209323 32439288 32549241 32419153 32059122 31469139
31159168 30809210 30629264
