MD 2024 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 583… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN…AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022
Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas into southern...and
central Louisiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 583...
Valid 140248Z - 140415Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 583 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to remain past the 04z
expiration of WW583. A replacement tornado watch will be coordinated
shortly.
DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, regional radar trends suggest
convection has strengthened across east TX ad southern/central LA in
response to increasing deep-layer ascent and the eastward shift of
the low-level jet axis. Additional convective development appears
likely owing to an uncapped, moist and highly sheared warm sector
evident from the 00z LCH sounding and area VAD/VWPs. CAMs suggest
the highest probability for new development/maturation of supercells
is on several warm advection confluence bands ahead of the slow
moving cold front from far southeast TX into central LA. With strong
shear and sufficient buoyancy in place through much of the night,
the risk for supercells and a few tornadoes will continue past the
04z expiration of WW583. A new watch will be coordinated to replace
it.
..Lyons/Grams.. 12/14/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 32589209 31789182 30739139 30549135 30379132 30199147
29999205 29959214 29939273 29889377 29949458 30239490
30599497 30949464 31569397 31809363 32189318 32339290
32589258 32709231 32589209
