MD 0203 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Sat Mar 05 2022
Areas affected...portions of southwestern Lower Michigan into
northern and western Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 060553Z - 060700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across Illinois and western Lake
Michigan may continue to pose local risk for damaging winds as they
move into southwestern Lower Michigan and western Indiana. New WW
issuance may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop continues to show a band of
thunderstorms moving eastward at around 50kt, across Illinois and
western Lake Michigan. Instability continues to diminish with time,
and also with eastward extent per RUC-based objective analysis, and
diminishing lightning flash counts support this.
With that said, very strong flow aloft is supporting not only rapid
storm motion, but damaging surface wind gusts as well -- with
several measured gusts near and above severe criteria across parts
of northern Illinois over the past half hour. As such, despite
increasingly unfavorable thermodynamics, severe-caliber wind gusts
may remain possible locally for another couple of hours as storms
move into southwestern Lower Michigan and western Indiana. This may
warrant consideration of new WW issuance prior to the top of the
hour.
..Goss/Thompson.. 03/06/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 42348761 43048582 42868515 40668535 39168737 39358748
39588804 40628793 41528752 42348761
