MD 2030 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 587… FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST LA…CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS…FAR SOUTHWEST AL
Mesoscale Discussion 2030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0947 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022
Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast LA...Central/Southern
MS...Far Southwest AL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 587...
Valid 141547Z - 141745Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 587 continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for thunderstorms capable of tornadoes will
continue across southern LA, central/southern MS, and far southwest
AL.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low near HEZ in far
southwest MS, A cold front extends from this low southwestward
through south-central LA and a warm front extends east-southeastward
from this low across southern MS and southwest AL (delineated well
by the 64 deg F isodrosotherm). Recent observations show that the
cold front remains progressive across southern LA into the northwest
Gulf of Mexico while the portion of the front closer to the surface
low is becoming less progressive. The warm front has begun lifting
northward as well.
Environmental conditions currently remain favorable for
thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, particularly if any storms can
interact with the warm front and/or undergo updraft intensification
as a result of favorable cell interactions. Over the next few hours,
the warm sector is expected to become increasingly favorable for
discrete supercell development as the shortwave trough over TX
continues quickly eastward and diurnal heating increases. The
low-level flow is forecast to increase across the warm sector as
well. Expectation is for the threat to trend away from the more
linear/cell-in-line mode currently ongoing to a more discrete threat
within the warm sector over the next several hours. A portion of
this region may be upgraded to Moderate with 1630Z Outlook update.
..Mosier/Hart.. 12/14/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30019303 31949106 32408955 31548818 30788892 29399158
30019303
