MD 2033 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 588… FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA…SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI…AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022
Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...southeast Mississippi...and
portions of southwest Alabama.
Concerning...Tornado Watch 588...
Valid 142053Z - 142230Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 588 continues.
SUMMARY...Numerous strong supercells continue this afternoon with a
threat for strong tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells developed this afternoon with only
a few confirmed tornadoes. However, these storms have congealed into
a line of 5-6 dominant supercells extending from Clarke County,
Mississippi to southwest of New Orleans. This storm evolution is
seemingly more favorable for low-level updraft circulations as TDSs
have recently been observed in Clarke County, Mississippi and south
of Lake Pontchartrain from similar strength rotational velocity as
the numerous supercells which lacked a clear TDS in the prior 1 to 2
hours. Therefore, as heating reaches its diurnal maximum, low-level
flow continues to strengthen in association with the deepening
meso-low, and the low-level jet strengthens to 60+ knots per LIX
VWP, storms may be entering the period of greatest tornado
potential.
The most favorable environment is currently near New Orleans where
STP values of 4 to 5 exist with a couple supercells approaching from
the Southwest. Therefore, portions of southeast Louisiana, including
the New Orleans metro area may have the greatest chance for strong
tornadoes over the next 1 to 2 hours.
..Bentley.. 12/14/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29118988 28989083 29099139 29159154 30099073 31128954
32018888 32498837 32598785 32418758 31958765 31438794
30988831 29938884 29358921 29118988
