MD 2042 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 589… FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AL…FAR SOUTHWEST GA…FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2042
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022
Areas affected...far southeast AL...far southwest GA...FL Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 589...
Valid 150528Z - 150730Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 589 continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated risk for a tornado will probably continue into
the overnight with stronger supercells. The primary limiting
factors for tornado potential may be weak low-level lapse rates and
the mid-level disturbance over the MS Valley and associated strong
forcing for ascent becoming increasingly displaced from the region.
Convective trends will be monitored for a possible small tornado
watch located to the east of Tornado Watch 589.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a north-south zone of storms near
Apalachicola and a squall line on the front over the western FL
Panhandle extending southwest into the Gulf. The airmass over the
FL Panhandle is moist and marginally unstable 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
according to the latest RAP soundings when modified for current
surface conditions. Despite adequately large low-level hodographs,
water-vapor imagery suggests the strongest large-scale forcing for
ascent is becoming increasingly displaced from the northeast Gulf
Coast tonight. Furthermore, the relatively weak surface to 1.5 km
lapse rates are likely not favoring robust low-level updraft
acceleration, and consequently stronger low-level mesocyclones,
other than transient storm-scale rotation. However, with these
competing factors will probably maintain some risk for a tornado and
localized damaging gusts into the overnight hours.
..Smith.. 12/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30538652 31278544 31348476 30858421 30168405 29868446
29628516 30088555 30378638 30538652
