MD 2045 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 591… FOR PARTS OF THE FL GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 2045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
Areas affected...Parts of the FL Gulf Coast
Concerning...Tornado Watch 591...
Valid 151515Z - 151645Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 591 continues.
SUMMARY...Some increase in the tornado threat is expected through
late morning as stronger storms move onshore.
DISCUSSION...At 1515 UTC, a thunderstorm cluster is beginning to
move onshore near and north of the Tampa Bay vicinity. Embedded
supercells within this cluster have occasionally shown moderate
low/midlevel rotation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Rich
low-level moisture, MLCAPE gradually increasing into the 500-1000
J/kg range, and 0-1 km SRH around 300 m2/s2 (per KTBW VWP) will
support a tornado threat with any embedded supercells as this
cluster of convection moves onshore through late morning. Strong
low-level flow will also support the potential for locally
strong/damaging gusts with the more intense cells and bowing line
segments.
Maintenance of favorable wind profiles and gradual
heating/moistening will support an expansion of the tornado and
damaging-wind threat across the FL Peninsula with time, though
widespread cloudiness and generally weak low/midlevel lapse rates
may tend to temper the threat to some extent as convection spreads
eastward.
..Dean.. 12/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 28588272 29248303 29428276 29288241 29058214 28558204
27928207 27308210 27068229 27188259 27418274 27828289
28318285 28588272
