MD 2048 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 591… FOR CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
Areas affected...Central FL Peninsula
Concerning...Tornado Watch 591...
Valid 151812Z - 151945Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 591 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and a brief tornado
or two will continue this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Convection has organized into a loosely organized QLCS
early this afternoon from near Tampa Bay northeastward across the
central FL Peninsula. A few wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range have
been noted over the last 1-2 hours, as well as occasional weak
low-level rotation embedded within the line, and a possible brief
tornado earlier in Pinellas County.
Wind profiles (as noted in KTBW and KMLB VWPs and the 16Z Cape
Canaveral sounding) remain favorable for organized storms, though
some veering flow near the surface has weakened low-level shear/SRH
to some extent. Low/midlevel lapse remain rather weak across the
central FL Peninsula, which may continue to limit the severe threat
somewhat, though modest heating/destabilization downstream of the
line will help maintain a risk for strong/damaging gusts and a brief
tornado or two through mid afternoon, especially across the
west-central FL Peninsula.
While the primary cold front is lagging the ongoing convection,
substantial redevelopment behind the QLCS appears unlikely, with the
stronger large-scale ascent lifting away from the region as the main
deep-layer cyclone occludes over the Upper Midwest.
..Dean.. 12/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 28258042 27728121 27278197 26978264 27268279 27588269
28828147 28928092 28748053 28258042
