MD 2066 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022
Areas affected...parts of the western Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 230408Z - 230645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A sparse severe threat may develop over portions of the
Florida Peninsula overnight. A couple brief bouts of hail are
possible, and a strong wind gust cannot be completely ruled out. A
WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete convection continues to pulse in
intensity across the eastern Gulf of Mexico ahead of the surface
trough per latest MRMS mosaic radar data. These storms persist along
a gradient of marginal instability (500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE per 23Z
mesoanalysis) which is colocated with a stationary boundary
delineating a surface-based airmass to the south and marginal
elevated buoyancy north. In addition, TBW VAD profiles show a
gradual increase in low-level flow and hodograph curvature,
suggesting that better shear may be overspreading the FL peninsula
(ahead of an approaching weak mid-level impulse) which may aid in
storm organization. Storms that move ashore and persist may support
an instance of marginally severe hail or a strong wind gust.
Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain sparse at best
and a WW issuance is not anticipated.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/23/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...
LAT...LON 27968278 26908165 26078127 25828141 25868167 26318224
26928262 27608286 27968278
