MD 2070 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE
Mesoscale Discussion 2070
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2022
Areas affected...northwestern New York State
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 232050Z - 240145Z
SUMMARY...Snow and localized blizzard conditions are expected to
intensify late this afternoon and through the evening hours. Snow
rates of 1-2 in/hr and strong wind gusts are expected.
DISCUSSION...As of 20:40 UTC, regional radar showed a broad area of
lake-enhanced precipitation ongoing along the eastern shores of Lake
Ontario extending eastward into northwestern NY State. Driven
primarily by broad ascent beneath a quasi-stationary upper-level
cyclone over southern Canada, moderate snow is expected to intensify
as it transitions to more organized banded structures over the next
few hours. Recent surface observation data shows southwesterly
surface flow is intensifying along the east/southeastern shores of
Lake Ontario suggesting large-scale ascent is waning. Banded radar
structures also show greater lake influence as low and mid-level
flow becomes more southwesterly with time in the wake of the upper
low. Forecast soundings, and hi-res model guidance support high
confidence in sustained heavy snow developing within one or more
lake-effect bands over the next couple of hours. Rates of 1-2 inches
per hour appear likely within the heaviest bands. In addition, a
strong fetch of southwesterly winds of 30-45 mph and higher gusts
will likely support localized blizzard conditions along the
immediate lake shore and areas downstream. Total whiteout and
blizzard conditions will be possible through the evening and into
the overnight hours.
..Lyons.. 12/23/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 44177641 44627581 44947519 44947461 44697432 44217471
43937512 43427588 43197661 43207694 43307713 43427703
43497683 43777635 43897633 44127649 44177641
