MD 2075 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SABINE RIVER VALLEY VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 2075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022
Areas affected...Parts of East Texas into Sabine River Valley
Vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 292314Z - 300115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms in East Texas and the Sabine River Valley may
produce isolated large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief
tornado this evening. The greater hail threat should exist farther
to the west with a marginally greater tornado environment in the
Sabine Valley into southwest Louisiana.
DISCUSSION...Convection has continued to develop along a surface
trough in East Texas along with other development within a
confluence zone within the Sabine River Valley. A few areas in East
Texas have warmed to the mid/upper 70s F, supporting around 1000
J/kg (with locally higher values) MLCAPE. Morning observed soundings
showed a plume of 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates in central Texas.
Storms along the surface trough will at least partially take
advantage of these upstream lapse rates. Storms in this region would
have slightly greater potential for marginally severe hail. However,
deep-layer shear is also roughly parallel to the surface trough and
these storms are likely to become linear more quickly. This trends
has already become apparent on regional radar imagery late this
afternoon.
Other more discrete storms within the confluence zone farther east
have shown signs of weak low-level rotation. Deep-layer shear is
better oriented to the confluence axis to support a longer duration
discrete mode. Though mid-level lapse rates are likely less steep
with eastern extent, rotating storms would be capable of isolated
large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. The tornado threat should be
mitigated by generally weak low-level winds. Some increase is
expected later this evening as the trough continues to approach, but
the stronger 850 mb winds may be offset from the stronger storms
near the coast.
..Wendt/Grams.. 12/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30209721 30929709 31639657 32719558 33219423 32839347
32119304 31089295 30259280 29169368 28679437 28659508
29209607 29669705 30209721
