MD 2077 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS…FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022
Areas affected...Far Southeast Texas...Far Southwest Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 300721Z - 300945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across far
southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana over the next few hours.
Marginally severe winds and a brief tornado will be the primary
threats.
DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Houston shows a
frontal band of convection across southeast Texas, with scattered
storms located ahead of the front from the Houston and Galveston
areas eastward toward the Louisiana state line. Some of the
convection has organized into a line, while other more discrete
cells are supercellular. The strongest rotating cells are located to
the east of Galveston and Trinity Bays between Houston and Beaumont.
Although instability is relatively weak along the coast to the east
of Houston, the WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear of 35 to 40 knots, with
0-3 km storm relative helicity around 160 m2/s2. In addition,
surface frictional effects could be enhancing low-level shear a bit
more just inland from the coast. As a result, the discrete cells
that are located 15 to 20 statute miles inland, could remain
supercellular for a couple more hours and may have a potential for
isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado. As the front
approaches from the west, linear mode is expected to become favored.
As this occurs, a downward trend in the severe threat is expected
later tonight.
..Broyles/Edwards.. 12/30/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
LAT...LON 29589398 29759351 30019341 30229352 30279393 30029464
29759509 29499516 29269497 29299470 29589398
