MD 2078 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 2078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022
Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...Southern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 301342Z - 301615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will be possible over the next
few hours across the central Gulf Coast area. Wind damage and/or a
brief tornado will be possible, but the threat should remain too
marginal for weather watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery shows a continuous
line of strong thunderstorms located from just southeast of Jackson,
Mississippi extending south-southwestward into southeast Louisiana.
Ahead of the line, the RAP is analyzing a corridor of weak
instability with MLCAPE generally in the 250 to 750 J/kg range. In
addition, the Slidell, Louisiana WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near
60 knots with 0-3 km storm relative helicity in the 350 to 400 m2/s2
range. In spite of the weak instability, the shear environment may
support an isolated severe threat with the stronger cells embedded
in the line. Although wind damage would be the greatest threat, a
brief tornado would also be possible. The threat is expected to
remain marginal through late morning.
..Broyles/Edwards.. 12/30/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 31938998 31279024 30389076 29949114 29729133 29389151
29039157 28799134 28739076 28929025 29248989 29638957
30158922 30958888 31538869 32128896 32258962 31938998
