MD 2079 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2079
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022
Areas affected...Southern Mississippi...southwest Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 301539Z - 301815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The risk for isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado will continue through early afternoon. A watch is not
currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite at 1530z shows a linear MCS
along the central Gulf Coast, with the most intense portion over far
southern Mississippi from near Hattiesburg south to the New Orleans
metro. Isolated severe gusts or wind damage have occurred with this
line over the past few hours as it moves generally east at 30 mph.
Instability over land remains modest with MLCAPE generally at or
below 750 J/kg and higher instability expected to remain offshore. A
continued isolated severe risk is expected through early afternoon
as the storms move east given a downstream environment with MLCAPE
of 500-800 J/kg and around 40 kts of of west/southwest effective
shear. Isolated strong/damaging gusts will remain the primary risk.
Some potential may exist for transient low-level rotation with
storms moving inland ahead of the line, or with embedded
circulations within the line as low-level shear appears sufficient
to support at least a localized risk.
The isolated nature of the severe risk should preclude the need for
a watch.
..Bunting/Hart.. 12/30/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30008734 29958894 30208949 30648955 31128937 31528925
31768880 31728825 31678739 31528683 31198654 30278668
30008734
