MD 2095 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST VA…WEST/CENTRAL CAROLINAS…AND PORTIONS OF EAST/CENTRAL GA
Mesoscale Discussion 2095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023
Areas affected...Southwest VA...west/central Carolinas...and
portions of east/central GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 071825Z - 072100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for sporadic damaging thunderstorm gusts
will increase through the afternoon. A watch issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...Efficient boundary-layer heating/destabilization of a
moist air mass (upper 60s/lower 70s surface dewpoints) is underway
along/east of the southern Appalachians -- where recent surface
analysis indicates a slow-moving NNE/SSW-oriented cold front.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will continue
in the vicinity of the front (aided by orographic lift along the
southern Appalachians) and boundary-layer circulations/differential
heating zones over the warm sector (where convective inhibition is
minimal). A relatively higher concentration of thunderstorm
development is possible over parts of GA into SC this
afternoon/early evening, where modest large-scale ascent is expected
ahead of a midlevel impulse tracking southeastward over the TN
Valley.
Despite generally weak flow/shear across the region, relatively
steep deep-layer lapse rates and the rich low/mid-level moisture
will support strong to locally damaging thunderstorm gusts -- aided
by water-loading into the well-mixed boundary layer. Severe-gust
potential should be greatest with any areas of localized convective
clustering/upscale growth.
..Weinman/Kerr.. 09/07/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...
TAE...
LAT...LON 35408281 34528342 33798391 33078424 32418440 31888435
31618407 31488359 31598308 31948263 32748183 33708094
34638020 35467976 36687949 37057968 37278003 37338048
37138105 36568177 35408281
