MD 2159 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS…FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Areas affected...eastern Kansas...far western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162248Z - 170115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some capable of hail around 1.00" diameter, may persist into the early evening hours. DISCUSSION...Storms have matured within a weak surface trough over northeast KS, and beneath cooling temperatures aloft in association with a shortwave trough. Storm initiation near peak heating as well as the cold temperatures aloft are aiding hail potential, and deep-layer shear is sufficient at around 35 kt to support a few longer-lived cells over the next few hours. Indications are that instability will remain sufficient trough at least 01-02Z across much of eastern KS and possibly far western MO near the border, until loss of heating eventually leads to dissipation. Until then, hail around 1.00" or slightly larger will be possible, with locally strong gusts. However, the overall trend for storm coverage should be down after 01Z, and watches are not anticipated. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39219720 39119638 38979549 38939496 38889436 38709408 38409400 37909403 37449428 37379486 37859583 38449676 39009723 39219720