MD 2161 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2161
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023
Areas affected...portions of southeast New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle and western Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 182033Z - 182230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is expected within the
next 1-2 hours. Sporadic strong storms capable of producing near 1
inch hail and strong gusts are possible into early evening.
DISCUSSION...An increasing cumulus field has developed this
afternoon from southeast NM into western OK in the vicinity of a
surface trough. Some deepening of the cumulus with towering
characteristics has been noted near western portions of the Texas
South Plains. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the MCD area in the next couple of hours.
Strong heating into the mid 80s to near 90 F and modest
boundary-layer moisture is contributing to MLCAPE values near
1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain somewhat weak through the
evening, with effective shear magnitudes around 15-25 kt noted in
20z mesoanalysis and regional 88-D VWPs. Loosely organized
cells/clusters may pose a risk for locally strong/damaging gusts,
supported by steep low-level lapse rates and a deeply mixed
boundary-layer. While weak vertical shear will limit longevity of
organized convection, a couple of the stronger cells could produce
marginally severe hail. Given the overall marginal environmental
parameters, a severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected.
..Leitman/Hart.. 09/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33690348 36230062 36609967 36249932 35669939 34729984
33940084 32630259 32660333 33690348
