MD 2191 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 694… FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX
Mesoscale Discussion 2191 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma into parts of the Ark-La-Tex Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 694... Valid 240614Z - 240815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 694 continues. SUMMARY...Strongest storms currently overspreading the McAlester vicinity may pose a continuing risk for severe hail and wind another couple of hours. Toward 3-5 AM CDT, however, this activity and other lingering storms probably will tend to weaken. DISCUSSION...Strongest lingering convection has become focused within the area of strongest low-level warm advection, near the nose of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet. It appears that this regime will only slowly shift east-southeastward during the next few hours, with a gradual veering of the low-level jet. At the same time, however, warming in the 850-700 mb layer, associated with east-southeastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer plume, is forecast to continue overspreading the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and may increasingly inhibit further convective development. The ongoing vigorous convection may tend to spread southeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex through 08-10Z, within modest (20-30 kt) west-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow. As it does, though, it appears that it will become increasingly removed from the more unstable inflow and weaken. ..Kerr.. 09/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35429628 35149475 32969372 33199547 34449640 35429628
