MD 2199 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023
Areas affected...portions of the northern Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 261822Z - 261915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A damaging gust or two is possible this afternoon. The
severe threat should be sparse at best, and a WW issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...A loosely organized line of multicells continues to
gradually progress eastward across the northern FL Peninsula amid
weak tropospheric flow. Given weak vertical shear, storms are
expected to remain loosely organized, joined only by a singular cold
pool. These storms are preceded by a heated boundary layer, where
surface temperatures are reaching 90 F amid mid 70s F dewpoints,
contributing up to 3500 J/kg SBCAPE (per 18Z mesoanalysis). With
precipitable water values also exceeding 2 inches, water-loaded
downdrafts should be common with the stronger storms, and a damaging
gust or two may occur. However, the severe threat should remain
sparse and a WW issuance is not anticipated.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/26/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29888123 29198090 28918097 28818148 28798256 29598313
30448287 30588218 30408166 29958129 29888123
