MD 2284 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND.
Mesoscale Discussion 2284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
Areas affected...portions of the FL Big Bend.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 220728Z - 220900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A brief tornado and isolated damaging gusts are possible
through about 09Z over parts of the FL coastal bend/Big Bend region.
The threat appears too limited in extent and intensity for a watch.
DISCUSSION...A band of showers with widely scattered embedded
thunderstorms extended at 0715Z from south-central GA across
Jefferson County FL, then south-southwestward over Apalachee Bay and
the adjoining northeastern Gulf. Ahead of this activity, a small,
northward-narrowing, triangular corridor of favorable boundary-layer
conditions remains, with MLCAPE around 800-1200 J/kg near the coast,
decreasing northward. While activity over GA, and in the eastern FL
Panhandle near the FL/GA line, should move soon into stable air and
remain disorganized, deeper/stronger convection may persist at or
near severe levels over near-coastal counties for another couple
hours before it too runs into substantially more-stable airmass with
lower-theta-e trajectories from the peninsula.
Within that small area, favorable shear exists for both
supercellular and line-embedded/QLCS mesocyclones to form. A
modified 00Z TLH RAOB and model soundings depict around 50 kt
effective-shear magnitudes and 150-250 J/kg effective SRH. As such,
a tornado cannot be ruled out, along with localized damaging gusts.
..Edwards.. 11/22/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30068412 30318415 30468388 30398337 30198320 29738319
29468330 29528345 29688342 29738360 29848363 30068396
30068412
