MD 2294 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 2294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Areas affected...Far southeast TX and southwest LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 010052Z - 010245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A spatially limited threat for a tornado should persist
along a portion of the northwest Gulf Coast this evening.
DISCUSSION...A deep convective cluster has become confined to the
far southeast three counties of TX (Chambers, Jefferson, and
Orange). This convection has struggled to organize beyond sporadic
attempts at lower-end/transient mid-level rotation. The overall
thermodynamic environment, which has been the primary mitigating
factor to severe weather thus far, might become slightly more
conducive to generating a surface-based supercell as temperatures
have warmed into the upper 60s near/just south of this activity
along the immediate coast. This should gradually translate east
through the rest of the evening into southwest LA, improving upon
the nil instability sampled in the 00Z LCH sounding. While the
low-level wind profile has been in the process of strengthening over
the past few hours, resulting in increasingly enlarged hodographs,
confidence remains low that sustained supercell development will
occur as depicted in the 23Z RRFS compared to the negligible signal
in the 00Z WoFS.
..Grams/Smith.. 12/01/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
LAT...LON 30249413 30369376 30349328 30249298 30089289 29909290
29769299 29739308 29679349 29599407 29549447 29649457
29699457 30249413
