MD 2295 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COASTAL SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL LA
Mesoscale Discussion 2295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Areas affected...Coastal southwest/south-central LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 010531Z - 010730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A low-probability threat for a brief tornado along with
isolated strong gusts of 40-55 mph will likely persist overnight,
but within a spatially confined area of a single parish or two at
any one time that should gradually shift east.
DISCUSSION...Attempts at brief mesovortex formation appeared to have
a relative peak during the 03-04Z time frame before thunderstorm
clusters became more oriented from southwest to northeast across far
southwest LA. This type of orientation within the low-level warm
theta-e advection regime should support a rather limited spatial
extent of brief tornado potential at any one time during the early
morning. The overlap of upper 60s surface dew points within
warm-sector inflow where surface winds have not yet veered appears
spatially small, and is presently confined to eastern Cameron
Parish. With convection likely regenerating in this
southwest-northeast orientation through much of the night, this
favorable warm-sector inflow region and resultant brief tornado
threat should slowly shift east along the coastal parishes of
southwest to south-central LA.
..Grams/Smith.. 12/01/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30179264 30229208 30159165 30049133 29849112 29589112
29369128 29399174 29529284 29769315 29929313 30179264
