MD 2316 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND EXTREME WESTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2316
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023
Areas affected...portions of northeast Tennessee into far southeast
Kentucky and extreme western Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 100253Z - 100500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An instance or two of damaging gusts or a brief tornado
may occur in association with an approaching line of storms.
However, the severe threat should be sparse and a WW issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS continues to progress east across portions of
southern KY into middle TN. However, low-level moisture and overall
buoyancy are struggling to overspread far southeastern parts of KY
into eastern TN, limiting the severe threat. As the axis of a LLJ
overspreads the central Appalachians, strong deep-layer and
low-level shear should result. The strong low-level shear suggests
that a damaging gust or tornado could occur if a storm or line
segment could ingest any surface-based, unstable air parcels.
Nonetheless, the limited low-level moisture amid a cooling boundary
layer suggests that ingesting surface-based, buoyant parcels will be
challenging, so the severe threat should be sparse at best. As such,
a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.
..Squitieri/Goss.. 12/10/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...
LAT...LON 35708452 36108478 36628452 37418368 37428295 37218250
36808208 36488208 36128256 35908307 35638359 35708452
