MD 2321 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 719… FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE…SOUTHERN/EASTERN AL…AND WESTERN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 2321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023
Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...southern/eastern
AL...and western GA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 719...
Valid 101000Z - 101130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 719 continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, including the potential for a
couple of tornadoes, continues early this morning.
DISCUSSION...Around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE exists in a narrow
corridor ahead of ongoing convection and a southeastward-moving cold
front across parts of the western FL Panhandle, southern/eastern AL,
and western GA. Even with some stability and near-neutral
boundary-layer lapse rates noted in RAP forecast soundings across
this region, sufficient low-level moisture still likely exists to
support surface-based convection. Deep-layer shear remains more than
adequate for organized updrafts, with enhanced southwesterly
mid-level flow associated with an upper trough aiding around 40-55
kt of effective bulk shear. A mix of short, bowing line segments and
occasional supercell structures has been observed over the past
couple of hours. Current expectations are for this mixed convective
mode to continue for a few more hours early this morning as this
activity spreads generally east-northeastward. 150-200 m2/s2 of
0-1-km SRH is still present along/ahead of this convection per
latest VWPs from KEVX/KEOX. Accordingly, any supercell that can be
sustained remains capable of producing a tornado. Isolated damaging
winds may also occur with the more linear convection along/near the
cold front.
..Gleason.. 12/10/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30358685 31258694 32628565 33058427 30938482 29708529
29978567 30268631 30358685
