MD 2332 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 2332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023
Areas affected...West-Central Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 170515Z - 170615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few low-topped supercells will affect the offshore
waters and coastal areas of the Tampa Bay region. The strongest
cells are expected to remain offshore, but conditions are being
monitored.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar/satellite imagery shows a couple of
low-topped rotating storms approx. 20-30 miles offshore to the
southwest of Tampa. These storms are just east of a well-defined
MCV/vorticity max, and roughly along a surface warm front that
extends from Tampa Bay eastward across the central FL Peninsula.
VAD profiles show very large low-level vertical shear, with 1km AGL
winds exceeding 50 knots, and 0-3km SRH values over 500 m2/s2.
Forecast soundings show very weak CAPE, but dewpoints near 70f
suggest the potential for surface-based updrafts. If one of these
cells can be sustained as it moves ashore, there is a chance of a
damaging wind gust or brief tornado. The threat area and overall
risk remains rather marginal at this time, but is being closely
monitored for a possible tornado watch if trends increase.
..Hart/Smith.. 12/17/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...
LAT...LON 28278385 28228267 27698204 26868233 26968306 27478363
28278385
