MD 2335 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 722… FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023
Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina
Concerning...Tornado Watch 722...
Valid 172351Z - 180145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 722 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk of isolated supercell structures and a brief
tornado continues.
DISCUSSION...Radar loops continue to show relatively shallow/weak
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving ashore across eastern NC.
This activity is to the east of a deep surface low centered off the
coast near the NC/SC border, in a regime of very strong low-level
winds and vertical shear. The VAD profile at ILM is showing a
rapidly weakening shear profile/hodograph as the surface low moves
east and as a mid-level dry slot approaches, but the VAD at MHX
remains very intense with 1km AGL winds over 60 knots. Stronger
low-level moisture and instability remains just offshore and may
never make it very far inland. But transient supercell structures
may develop along the near-shore baroclinic zone, posing a risk of
brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.
Tornado watch 722 is scheduled to expire at 01z. Current
indications are that coastal counties of far-eastern NC may need to
remain in a watch for a few hours beyond 01z.
..Hart.. 12/17/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...
LAT...LON 34457808 36117660 35997526 35107547 34417657 33787770
34457808
