MD 2336 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023
Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 180253Z - 180400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any storms along
the NC coast that can ingest surface-based buoyancy. A Tornado Watch
is being issued.
DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to approach the NC/SC
coastline, with an effective warm front established roughly near the
NC shore. Regional VADs depict impressively curved/enlarged
hodographs over extreme eastern North Carolina. The effective warm
front and associated marginally buoyant surface-based parcels have
struggled to move far inland over the last several hours, limiting
severe potential. However, mid 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints
reside along the shore, and it is possible that this better moisture
may move further inland of ongoing storms over the next couple of
hours. Should this occur, a damaging gust or brief tornado may
develop with any of the stronger storms. Given the impressive shear
profiles, a new Tornado Watch is being issued given
destabilization/convective trends that are possible over the next
few hours.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 12/18/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...
LAT...LON 34637713 35417696 36047660 36297626 36277589 35917546
35457541 35037571 34727617 34587659 34637713
