MD 0269 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48… FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022
Areas affected...Central Oklahoma and far north Texas.
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48...
Valid 180010Z - 180115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe weather including large hail and damaging wind
gusts will likely continue this evening.
DISCUSSION...As of 00 UTC, regional radar imagery showed scattered
thunderstorms ongoing east of dryline across central OK. Driven by
750-1000 J/KG of MLCAPE beneath a cold core upper low, rapid airmass
modification is forecast to continue this evening ahead of the
storms supporting a continued risk for large hail and damaging wind
gusts.
Regional VWPS show strongly veering wind profiles in the low-levels
with significant backing evident above 3km. This will likely
continue to support a mixed storm mode of supercell structures and
line segments. Steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/KM) will favor
efficient hail growth within more isolated updrafts, especially
those able to acquire some rotation. The cluster of storms ongoing
northwest of OKC appear to be the most favorably positioned to
produce severe hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, the mixed
storm mode will support the potential for damaging wind gusts as
additional storms continue to develop farther south along the
dryline. Severe potential will continue eastward into central
Oklahoma later this evening. Storms will eventually outrun the
returning surface moisture/buoyancy after dark across eastern
Oklahoma, decreasing the severe threat overnight.
..Lyons.. 03/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34989887 35629880 36049869 36379790 36409729 36409711
36099641 35579588 35239571 34629564 34179580 33939588
33669638 33689658 33679670 33719763 33979798 34229823
34519853 34729880 34989887
