MD 0270 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST TX…NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL LA…FAR SOUTHERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0830 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022
Areas affected...East TX...Northwest/North-Central LA...Far Southern
AR
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 180130Z - 180330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms capable of large hail may develop
across portions of east TX into northwest LA and southwest AR over
the next few hours. Limited coverage should preclude the need for a
watch.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has shown gradually increasing
intensity and coverage of the elevated thunderstorms from east TX
northeastward into far southwest AR. This area is characterized by
surface temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints ranging
from the upper 50s across east TX to the lower 50s across northern
LA and southwest AR. As sampled by the 00Z SHV sounding, these
surface conditions do not result in surface-based buoyancy. However,
persistent warm-air advection continues throughout the warm sector
in the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates (i.e. 2-6 km max
lapse rates around 8.5 deg C per km), fostering elevated
thunderstorms.
As the low-level moisture continues to gradually increase, the
coverage and intensity of these storms has also increased. Overall
expectation is for the majority of the storm to remain below severe
limits. However, a few updrafts may become strong enough to briefly
produce severe hail. This limited severe potential is expected to
preclude the need for the watch, with a higher potential for
surface-based storms anticipated south and southeast of this region
later tonight.
..Mosier/Hart.. 03/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 32879474 33449376 33159220 32469243 31279358 31439565
32879474
