MD 0271 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48… FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0922 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022
Areas affected...Central/Eastern OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48...
Valid 180222Z - 180345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
gradually decrease over the next few hours. Even so, a few storms
will still have the potential to produce hail and/or damaging wind
gusts.
DISCUSSION...A large area of thunderstorms continues to move
gradually northeastward across central OK. These thunderstorms are
currently in an area of modest buoyancy, with mesoanalysis
estimating MUCAPE ranges from around 1000 across south-central OK to
around 250 J/kg over north-central OK. The air mass downstream
across northeast OK is currently stable, with no buoyancy indicated
within mesoanalysis or forecast soundings. However, mid-level
moistening associated with the approaching shortwave trough in
tandem with some cooling aloft should result in modest buoyancy over
the next few hours as the storms move into the region. Moderate to
strong vertical deep-layer shear will remain over the region,
although some weakness in the mid-level flow will persist.
Given these environmental conditions, the expectation is for
gradually diminishing storm intensity and coverage over the next few
hours. Isolated hail will remain possible within the strongest
updrafts, along with the potential for a few stronger wind gusts,
particularly where the downdrafts augment the gusty winds along the
front.
..Mosier.. 03/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 35499811 36449801 36679704 36589628 36049547 35249525
34159568 33869641 33939682 34149699 34859709 35229744
35499811
