MD 0279 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022
Areas affected...South-central Missouri and Northeastern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 181650Z - 181815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Cold temperatures aloft will support marginally severe
hail with discrete convection along the warm front. Some
intensification may occur later this afternoon with a modestly
warming and moistening boundary layer. Current trends suggest a
watch is unlikely, however.
DISCUSSION...Modest convective activity continues along the cold
front in north-central Arkansas into parts of southern Missouri. A
couple of discrete thunderstorms have developed in north-central
Arkansas over the last couple of hours and have become briefly more
intense on KSGF radar imagery. MRMS MESH data has shown brief pulses
to 1 inch hail as well. Given the cold temperatures aloft in
proximity to the upper low and the steep mid-level lapse rates
observed on the LZK and SGF morning soundings, it is reasonable that
these storms could produce very isolated, marginally severe hail.
The limiting factor will be very low buoyancy. Objectively
mesoanalysis shows only around 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE. A narrow cloud
break is noted just ahead of the Arkansas activity. Modest surface
heating and downstream dewpoints creeping into the mid 50s may
support intensification later this afternoon. Currently, however,
the overall threat appears too marginal for a weather watch.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 03/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 36669293 36949290 37119268 37109228 37109171 36939106
36619043 36129013 35869024 35439060 35369113 35919217
35969234 36609290 36669293
